NUMBERS GAMES

Politics is a numbers game, but which numbers really count these days?

In Ohio's 12th District, 4-term Republican incumbent  Pat Tiberi is easily winning the money race, having raised nearly $1.4 million in campaign contributions so far this year, including $246,000 in the second quarter alone.

By comparison, in reports to the Federal Elections Commission, Democratic challenger David Robinson has raised $80,254 this election cycle, which includes $52,371 in the second quarter.  (Disclosure: that includes $200 from LICOPAC).

No surprise there.  As the Dispatch reports today,

"Quarterly congressional campaign finance reports due yesterday provide a reminder of why it is usually an uphill battle to beat an incumbent lawmaker: They raise tons of campaign cash."

Robinson himself has told volunteers he expects to be heavily outspent by Tiberi, who draws major support from utilities, insurance companies, banks and financial institutions and national Republican PACs.  His hopes lie in outworking Tiberi at the grassroots -- and on cashing in the 12th District numbers in terms of 12th District voter demographics.

According to a Robinson fact sheet:

• George Bush beat John Kerry in the district by only 2.8 percent back in 2004.
• Democratic Governor Ted Strickland won the 12th with a 58.4 percent margin in 2006.
• Republicans registered only 18 percent of primary registered voters in the district in March, as compared to 30 percent Democratic and 52 percent independent.
• Robinson won his primary race in March, gaining 51 percent in a 3-way race, despite the fact that he was not the party-endorsed candidate.

Despite his modest bank account, Robinson spent early and heavily on the tools of the trade -- campaign buttons and stickers and signs and a high quality video and web site (www.robinson2008.com ) operation.  And there are now signs he's putting more emphasis on fund raising, although it may be too late to impress the dollar-fixated Democratic sugar daddies in Washington and Columbus (ie, DCCC, DNC, ODP).

In part, Robinson is hoping that the Obama tide raises all Democratic boats, even the small ones.

"I'm not a career politician, so we're creating our campaign from scratch," Robinson said back in April.  "We are confident that we will have the resources to put our ideas and plans before every voter for the general election."

Meanwhile, in the 18th District, Republican challenger Fred Dailey must be praying for a McCain tide because his small craft needs a boost as well in its bid to unseat Democratic incumbent Zack Space.

Space, despite swearing off all gifts from lobbyists, raised $322,147 during the second quarter, easily outdistancing Dailey, a former state agriculture director, who brought in $116,000 over the same period. 

According to the Dispatch, this gives Space a 10-1 dollar advantage over Dailey for the entire 2007-2008 election cycle.

It wasn't too long ago that national Republicans announced they intended to make Space their number one target in 2008, on the belief that his victory two years ago in a normally Republican district was a fluke, resulting only from the lobbying scandal which engulfed former Republican incumbent Bob Ney.

Only in this case, the "target" decided to fire back, and now seems headed for an easy re-election win.

(Gray Hunter)